I was inspired to write this after recently completing my application for the Bessemer Venture Partners Summer Analyst program, where an application prompt asked: "What industry trend are you most excited about, and why? Please provide an example of an early-stage startup (Seed or Series A) that exemplifies this trend." They gave Fintech for the Aging (a Bessemer roadmap) as an example trend, with a note not to choose a Bessemer portfolio company. I answered with asteroid mining, highlighting the startup Karman+ and its audacious plan to mine water from asteroids, and have challenged myself to expand that answer into the full roadmap below. Enjoy!

The Asteroids Are Waiting

Space mining may sound like science fiction, but a convergence of technological and economic forces is bringing it into the realm of reality. Humanity's appetite for critical minerals is surging just as traditional supplies are becoming harder and more harmful to obtain. At the same time, the cost to reach space has plummeted, and the foundation of a space-based economy is being laid. Why mine on Earth, with all the environmental and social costs, when vast untapped resources float above us? Asteroid mining offers the tantalizing promise of abundant metals and water that could fuel both our planet's industries and an expanding presence in space, ushering in an era of sustainable growth beyond Earth's confines.

To put this opportunity in perspective: a single metal-rich asteroid just a few hundred meters across can contain more platinum-group metals than have ever been mined on Earth. The total assessed mineral wealth of the top ten near-Earth asteroids is estimated in the trillions of dollars. Tapping even a fraction of these resources could fundamentally reshape global markets. Of course, the flip side of such abundance is the potential to flood markets (one simulation showed a large asteroid haul could halve global gold prices), but managed wisely, off-world mining could usher in an age of material abundance. Beyond the dollars and cents, there is a profound ethical and environmental incentive: every ton of metal or liter of water sourced in space is one that doesn't require strip-mining a rainforest or exploiting vulnerable workers. In short, asteroid mining represents a chance to radically expand humanity's resource base while reducing the toll on our home planet.

I have been mapping out the macro trends that are turning asteroid mining from fantasy to feasibility, and four converging shifts stand out as the driving forces behind this emerging industry:

1. Launch costs continue to fall

Access to space has become dramatically cheaper and more frequent in the last two decades. NASA's Space Shuttle used to cost >$50,000 per kilogram to lift payload to orbit; today, SpaceX's reusable Falcon 9 offers launches at roughly $2,700/kg, a 20× reduction in cost. This revolution in launch economics, driven by reusability and private competition, means missions that were once the exclusive domain of superpower governments are now within reach for startups. Every year, new records are set in launch activity: in 2023, over 2,600 objects were launched to space (about 15× the annual launch count a decade ago). Cheaper, frequent launch is a game-changer for asteroid mining. It lowers the upfront cost of sending prospecting probes, mining equipment, and return vehicles. It also enables rapid iteration: companies can afford to test technologies in space, learn, and try again, rather than betting everything on one enormously expensive mission. In short, falling launch costs are the enabling condition that makes the rest of the asteroid mining equation start to close.

2. Demand for critical minerals is soaring

The push for electrification and clean energy on Earth has created an unprecedented hunger for metals and minerals. Electric vehicle batteries, wind turbines, solar panels, and high-tech electronics all require elements like lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare-earth elements, platinum-group metals, and more. The International Energy Agency projects that mineral demand for clean energy technologies will triple by 2030 and quadruple by 2040, reaching ~40 million tons per year. Already, lithium demand jumped 30% in 2023 alone, with other battery metals seeing high double-digit demand growth. Terrestrial mining and supply chains are struggling to keep up, and in some cases, the Earth's known reserves are insufficient to meet projected needs. For example, cobalt (critical for many batteries) is largely sourced from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which produces ~70% of the world's supply. Not only is this a fragile, geographically concentrated supply chain, but it's plagued by ethical issues like child labor and dangerous working conditions. Rare earth elements and other strategic minerals face similar bottlenecks and geopolitical risks. Asteroid mining directly targets this problem. A small Near-Earth Asteroid can be phenomenally metal-rich. One famous example is the asteroid 16 Psyche, thought to be a 140-mile-wide chunk of metallic iron-nickel core; it's been speculated to hold on the order of $700 quintillion in metal value (though any attempted monetization would obviously crash market prices). The exact figures may be speculative, but the order of magnitude is clear: space has essentially untapped, nearly infinite mineral resources compared to the finite crust of Earth. As Earth-facing demand climbs and shortages loom, the economic incentive to develop off-world sources becomes very compelling.

3. Terrestrial mining is hitting sustainability limits

Even if we could squeeze more production out of Earth's mines, doing so comes at increasing cost, both financial and human. High-grade ores are depleting, forcing miners to dig deeper and process more ore for the same yield. This diminishing return drives up energy use and expense. More importantly, traditional mining exacts a steep environmental toll: extracting and refining metals often produces toxic waste and chemical runoff. For instance, mining operations can release lead and arsenic into local waterways and cause acid mine drainage that poisons ecosystems for decades. Mining is also a major source of carbon emissions and habitat destruction (e.g. clearing rainforests for open-pit mines). Then there's the social toll, from the aforementioned labor abuses in cobalt and other mineral supply chains to the displacement of communities. In short, the current path of digging up ever more of Earth to meet insatiable mineral demand is increasingly viewed as unsustainable. Asteroid mining, by contrast, offers a chance to decouple resource acquisition from environmental degradation. If you mine an asteroid, no delicate ecosystems are destroyed. No communities are poisoned or uprooted. And any hazardous byproducts or processing can be done in space, safely away from Earth's biosphere. In effect, asteroid mining could offload the dirty work of resource extraction off-planet.

4. A burgeoning off-world economy is emerging

Perhaps the most subtle shift, but a crucial one, is the rise of a market for space resources themselves. The past few years have seen an explosion of commercial activity in orbit: thousands of new satellites (for communication, imaging, etc.), plans for private space stations, lunar exploration by companies, and more. The global space economy hit $570+ billion in 2023 (nearly double what it was a decade earlier) and is projected to reach $1-2 trillion by 2040. Importantly, over 75% of this activity is now commercial, not government, a complete flip from the Apollo era. With this rapid growth comes a new problem: logistics. All these satellites and spacecraft need fuel and maintenance. Future space habitats or factories will need raw materials and construction supplies. If every ounce has to be launched from Earth, the costs remain astronomical. For this exact reason, NASA and others have been loudly pushing in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) aka "live off the land" in space. Now that getting to space is cheaper, the next cost breakthrough is getting resources in space. Water is a prime example. Water, when split into hydrogen and oxygen, is rocket fuel. It's also essential for life support and even radiation shielding. But water is extremely expensive to launch. Asteroids (as well as the Moon) offer water in the form of ice or hydrated minerals that could be mined and turned into usable propellant. Space agencies are already contracting to buy propellant in orbit in the near future, essentially creating a market for space-sourced water. In fact, in 2020 NASA made a symbolic purchase of a few ounces of lunar regolith from private companies to establish the legal precedent for space resource sales. The private sector is responding: companies are planning orbital fuel depots, refueling missions, and more. Asteroid mining stands to both supply and benefit from this trend. A startup that can deliver water or metal in orbit has eager customers waiting, from satellite operators looking to extend the life of billion-dollar assets by refueling them, to governments planning permanent installations on the Moon and Mars that will require local materials. We're essentially witnessing the very beginning of an off-world supply chain.

These shifts (cheaper launch, spiking mineral demand, unsustainable mining practices, and the rise of a space economy) together create a perfect storm of opportunity for entrepreneurs. As with any nascent industry, asteroid mining will require a whole ecosystem of innovators attacking different pieces of the problem. We're already seeing the first wave of ambitious startups forming to seize this opportunity, and here is how I see several key opportunity areas in the asteroid mining value chain:

Entrepreneurial Opportunities

1. Water mining for in-space propellant

The most immediate and pragmatic opportunity in asteroid mining is extracting water to create rocket fuel in space. Water ice exists on many asteroids (particularly C-type carbonaceous asteroids), and when split via electrolysis into hydrogen and oxygen, it becomes the propellant that powers most rockets. The economics are compelling: launching propellant from Earth costs thousands of dollars per kilogram, but mining and processing water in space could reduce that cost by orders of magnitude. This creates a clear, near-term market: satellite operators, space stations, and future lunar/Martian missions all need fuel, and they're willing to pay for it delivered in orbit.

Several startups are pursuing this angle. Karman+ raised a $20 million seed round to build autonomous spacecraft capable of mining water from asteroids and converting it into propellant. Their approach focuses on small, cost-effective missions that can prove the concept and generate revenue before scaling up. TransAstra is developing similar capabilities, with plans for orbital fuel depots that would serve as gas stations in space. The beauty of this model is that it doesn't require returning anything to Earth. The entire value chain exists in space, which simplifies the technical challenges and regulatory hurdles.

2. Metal extraction for Earth markets

While water mining serves the space economy, the holy grail of asteroid mining is the bounty of high-value metals and minerals that could be shipped back to Earth. Certain asteroids (particularly M-type metallic asteroids or the cores of fragmented protoplanets) are loaded with elements like platinum, palladium, iridium, gold, and nickel that are rare on Earth's crust. These platinum-group metals (PGMs) are crucial for electronics, catalysts, specialized alloys, and EV components, and they typically command high prices. A wave of startups is looking to unlock these asteroid metals, effectively opening new mines in the sky. One prominent example is AstroForge, a California startup that in 2024 raised a $40M Series A to pursue mining of platinum-group metals from asteroids. AstroForge's approach is to send small, cost-efficient spacecraft to intercept near-Earth asteroids, scrape off material, and process it on-site to extract the target metals, which would then be sent back to Earth in dedicated re-entry capsules. The ambition is bold, and they're acutely aware of previous failures (the early 2010s companies Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries both folded without achieving their mining goals), but are betting that 2020s technology, and a different market environment, will give a different outcome. If a company like AstroForge can bring back even a few hundred kilograms of platinum from a small asteroid, it would be a historic proof-of-concept (and potentially very profitable, 100 kg of platinum is ~$3 million at today's prices). In the long run, successful extraction of metals from asteroids could profoundly alter supply dynamics on Earth. Imagine a world where the constraints on rare metals are eased by imports from space. Electronics manufacturers, EV battery makers, and cleantech firms would all benefit from a more abundant supply of critical materials. Of course, there's a balance to be struck: a massive influx of asteroid metals could crash prices and upend mining industries in countries that rely on those exports.

3. Building the space resource supply chain (logistics & manufacturing)

Mining the resource is only half the equation, you also need to get it where it's needed and integrate it into the existing supply chain. This opens the door for startups focused on the "picks and shovels" of the space mining industry: orbital logistics, transport vehicles, processing tech, and storage solutions. For instance, once water is mined from an asteroid, how do you efficiently move it to a depot in Earth orbit or to a customer satellite? Companies are working on specialized space tugs (transfer vehicles) that can rendezvous with a mining spacecraft, take on its cargo, and deliver it to the destination. Orbit Fab, mentioned earlier, is one such player, effectively an early infrastructure company providing orbital fuel tanks and interfaces to make fluid transfer in microgravity routine. They're creating standardized refueling ports that satellite makers can incorporate, and have demonstrated transferring water in space as a proxy for fuel. There's also room for innovation in storage and processing: for example, an orbital refinery that takes crude asteroid ore and concentrates it before shipment could save lots of mass and cost. Startups developing microgravity processing techniques, whether electromagnetic separation, vacuum distillation of metals, or novel smelting processes using solar heat, will be crucial enablers. Another facet is manufacturing in space. One way to avoid gluts on Earth is to use asteroid materials to build things in orbit that never have to be lifted from Earth. This is a whole sub-industry in itself, and it's synergistic with asteroid mining. I foresee partnerships where one company delivers raw materials and another uses it in a space-based 3D printer to produce satellite trusses or antenna dishes on-site. All these pieces, mining, transport, processing, distribution, must come together to make the extraterrestrial supply chain real.

4. Prospecting, data, and asteroid asset discovery

Before you can mine an asteroid, you have to find it and know what's in it. Thus, a critical opportunity (and one of the likely earliest revenue streams in this sector) is asteroid prospecting and characterization. Today, there are over ~30,000 known near-Earth asteroids, but we have detailed composition data on only a tiny fraction of them (mostly from spectral analysis via telescopes, and a handful visited by spacecraft). There is a clear need for better "resource mapping" of near-Earth space, essentially a catalog of mineral-rich asteroids, their trajectories, and composition. Some startups are focusing on this by developing advanced space telescopes and sensors to remotely assess asteroid content. For example, TransAstra (aside from mining tech) has been working on the Sutter Ultra telescope array concept to detect small asteroids and estimate their water/metal content via spectroscopy. Beyond remote sensing, there will be a need for scout missions, small, relatively low-cost probes that can visit candidate asteroids, do on-site analysis, and radio back data. These probes could hitch rides on rockets (perhaps rideshare on launches, like many CubeSats do) and go evaluate targets, almost like robotic field geologists. A service model could emerge: mining companies might pay a prospecting company for data on which asteroid is worth $100B vs which is chock-full of worthless regolith. In essence, data about space resources will be as valuable as the resources themselves, just as oil companies pay for seismic surveys and mineral companies pay for geologists to map deposits. I think there's room for "Asteroid Intelligence" startups that become the Bloomberg terminals of space resources, aggregating and selling information on asteroid trajectories, composition estimates, and even real-time tracking of who might be extracting what. On the flip side, companies that secure rights (or at least first-mover advantage) on particularly juicy asteroids might see their asteroid claims become appreciable assets. While the legal status of owning an asteroid is still a bit gray (international space law prohibits sovereign appropriation but is permissive of private resource extraction), the U.S. and other countries have passed laws granting companies rights to resources they extract. Entrepreneurs who can navigate the regulatory and legal frameworks for resource rights, and perhaps create marketplaces for trading those rights or futures on asteroid ore, could pioneer a completely new kind of commodities market.

What's Next?

The concept of mining asteroids still has significant challenges. On the technical side, everything from autonomous rendezvous to extraction techniques in microgravity must be proven out. However, in comparison to prior setbacks, there is actual market pull for space resources. Crucially, we now see a pathway to commercial viability, the first asteroid mining ventures aren't trying to haul back $100B of platinum overnight. Instead, they're following a pragmatic path, start with water or another easily monetizable resource in space, sell to known customers to generate early revenue, prove the tech, and then scale up to metals for Earth when the process is mature. This phased approach makes us optimistic that asteroid mining will not be a repeat of the dot-com era "too early" companies. It's more akin to the evolution of the commercial space launch industry: what was once only governments is now done by SpaceX and others at lower cost, likewise, what was once a crazy idea (mining asteroids) can become a real industry segment in the next decade.

Make no mistake, the impact of success in this field would be enormous. If even a single private mission returns, say, 1000 tons of useful material from an asteroid, it will mark a paradigm shift in how we view space. It would effectively open a frontier, with cascading effects on economics and geopolitics. Countries rich in mineral exports could see new competition from space miners, potentially reducing the leverage of some resource-rich nations. At the same time, a plentiful supply of formerly scarce metals could turbocharge high-tech manufacturing and green infrastructure on Earth. Strategically, nations might race to secure alliances or stakes in space mining ventures to ensure access to future resources. We may even witness "astro-diplomacy" and negotiations about who gets to mine where (I would envision this in the way we had treaties for the high seas or Antarctica). Environmentally, the widespread adoption of space resources could allow Earth to heal from some of the scars of heavy industry, as mining moves off-planet over the long term.

In the near term, what matters is that a handful of bold startups are forcing the issue by attempting the first extra-terrestrial mining missions. The next 5-10 years will likely give us the first concrete answers, and these milestones, even if modest, will be analogous to the Wright Brothers' first flight, proof that it can be done. Much as we saw with the internet or commercial launch, success breeds a virtuous cycle: once it's shown that an asteroid can be profitably mined, capital will flood in, talent will flock to the sector, and entire sub-industries (like those outlined above) will blossom to support scaling it up.

I believe the emergence of off-world resource industries is not a question of "if," but "when." All the macro trends point to the inevitability of extending the human economic sphere into the cosmos, with all the profound implications that it carries for our species' future.

If you're building the next great company striving to mine the skies and supply the Earth (and beyond) sustainably, I want to talk to you. The asteroids are waiting, and the future is up for grabs, a trillion miles away, perhaps, but getting closer every day.